The Illinois Report Card data released last fall and postsecondary enrollment data released last month provide reasons for hope and highlight areas of improvement for Illinois. While high school graduation and 9th grade on track rates continue to rebound, postsecondary enrollment and remediation rates are seeing more marginal improvement. More and better analysis is needed to assess whether programs in K-12 are leading students to be more prepared for postsecondary opportunities and careers.
As demographic trends pressure the higher education system, ensuring more students are prepared and graduate higher education will be critical. As postsecondary institutions work on recruitment and retention strategies, aligning these with high-quality secondary programming will be key. EdSystems stands ready to help Illinois’ institutions with this alignment work and advocate for the funding and resources necessary to make access to programming available to all students across the state. The state must continue to focus on equitable outcomes for all students, as low-income and minority students had lower numbers before the pandemic and were often the hardest hit by the pandemic. Low-income and minority students are also a key constituency to ensure that graduates have the skills necessary for future jobs. Focusing resources to prepare students for postsecondary should be a top priority for policymakers and communities.
9th Grade On Track and High School Graduation Rates Continue to Recover
In school year 2019–20, 9th grade on track rates hit an all-time high of 88.8 percent. However, due to the pandemic, this rate dropped in school year 2020–21 to 82.2 percent. It is unsurprising that 9th grade on track, a measure of attendance and course-taking, was heavily influenced by the pandemic. However, the recovery from the pandemic is encouraging: 88.2 percent of students are now on track, and Black students have reached 79.7 percent, a percentage point higher than pre-pandemic. There is still work to do since Latinx students are 1.8 percentage points below their pre-pandemic levels, and the gaps that existed prior to the pandemic have had minimal closure.
Since they tend to be correlated, falling 9th grade on track percentages could have had a longer-term impact on high school graduation rates. However, this does not seem to be the case. Rather, after a dip in school year 2020–21, graduation rates have recovered over the last three years as the pandemic recedes (see Figure 1).
High school graduation rates follow a comparable trend to 9th grade on track, with marginalized groups experiencing steeper declines during the pandemic and varied recovery efforts beginning in school year 2021–22, with Black students making stronger gains and Latinx students weaker gains post-pandemic. Black students are nearly a percentage point above pre-pandemic levels, but Latinx students are still a half percentage point below pre-pandemic levels.
Figure 1. High school graduation rates disaggregated by race and ethnicity (source: Illinois Interactive Report Card)
Postsecondary Enrollment and Remediation are Trending in the Right Direction
While Illinois postsecondary enrollment percentages are still below pre-pandemic numbers (68.6 percent in 2021 compared to 66.1 in 2024), they are improving incrementally above their initial pandemic drop. A recent report from the National Student Clearinghouse suggests that nationally, postsecondary enrollment numbers are back above pre-pandemic levels (.4 percent), but undergraduate enrollments are still one percent below pre-pandemic levels. The rebound in postsecondary is driven by older students’ enrollments, but 18 year-old enrollment seems to be rebounding as well. Community college enrollment numbers are also on the rise, both nationally and in Illinois. While community college enrollment in Illinois is still recovering (25.5 percent in 2024 vs. 28.5 percent in 2021), steady upward progress is being made.
In addition, as postsecondary enrollment rates increased, community college remediation rates slightly decreased over the past year. Following a spike in remediation rates last year (28.8 percent for the class of 2020), new data from the Illinois State Board of Education shows a slight decrease in enrollment (27.7 percent for the class of 2022). After steep declines in remediation enrollment for the graduating class of 2020, remediation rates have flattened. Looking ahead, we hope to see the state make further pushes to decrease enrollment in remedial courses, given that the current rate remains high.
Figure 2. Percent of high school graduates enrolled 12 months after graduation in postsecondary institutions: in total, at community colleges, and at four-year universities. (Source: Illinois Interactive Report Card)
| Year | Total Enrollment | Community College Enrollment | University Enrollment |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2024 |
66.1% |
25.5% |
40.6% |
|
2023 |
64.8% |
25.1% |
39.7% |
|
2022 |
64.3% |
26.1% |
38.2% |
|
2021 |
68.6% |
28.5% |
40.1% |
|
2020 |
70.3% |
29.8% |
40.6% |
Inequities in College and Career Pathway Endorsements
The College and Career Pathway Endorsements system, a pillar of the Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness (PWR) Act, is intended to provide students with coherent career pathway experiences in high school. While dual credit and Career & Technical Education (CTE) courses are valuable on their own, tying these high-quality experiences together with work-based learning should be a launching point for students as they enter postsecondary and move into the workforce. However, this only works if these are experiences equitably available across the state, regardless of a school’s geography, funding, or student population. To do so, districts need flexibility in how to meet the requirements within the context of their communities. Currently, the vast majority of CCPE endorsements are given by districts funded over 100 percent of adequacy (see Figure 3). This is despite a large increase in the amount of dual credit being taken and increases in AP participation.
Figure 3. The number of endorsements awarded based on districts’ funding adequacy levels under Illinois’ evidence-based funding system.
Reducing Structural Barriers to Opportunity
A closer examination of trends reveals that historically marginalized groups have experienced sharper setbacks and mixed recovery trajectories after the pandemic. For instance, as noted, 9th grade on track rates for Latinx students dropped from 85.9 percent in school year 2019–20 to 77.3 percent in school year 2020–21, a decline of 8.6 percentage points, compared to a 5.5 percentage point drop for white students during the same period. Similarly, dual credit participation for Black students dropped by 6.5 percent between school year 2019–20 and school year 2020–21, while white students saw a 6.6 percent increase in the same period. These disparities underscore how systemic inequities exacerbate challenges for students with fewer resources to buffer disruptions.
Postsecondary enrollment data tells a similar story (see Figure 2). Community college enrollment rates dropped from 29.8 percent for the class of 2018 and have only recovered to 25.5 percent for the most recent year, while enrollment in 4-year colleges recovered to 40.6 percent, matching pre-pandemic levels. Since community colleges disproportionately serve low-income and first-generation students, their slower recovery reflects broader inequities in educational access.
These patterns, and the pattern of students earning College and Career Pathway Endorsements, highlight the urgent need for equitable resource allocation and targeted interventions. Without systemic investments to close gaps in access to academic and career opportunities, such as dual credit and postsecondary pathways, many students will continue to face structural barriers to recovery and success.
